Thanks to Mark Kantrowitz for making me aware of his analysis, which is available here on FinAid.org. It shows that the growth in FAFSA (Free Application for Student Aid) filings has decelerated this year to 1.3%, having grown 17.5% in the first quarter and 12.3% in the second quarter. Since this is a seasonally slow quarter,(the first quarter is typically the strongest with volumes dropping each quarter thereafter), the year-to-date FAFSA filings are still up 11.8%. FAFSA filings by independent students only grew by 0.3%, while filings for independent students grew by 1.7%.
Wondering about growth on a state-by-state basis? Here are the FAFSA filed through the first three quarters of 2010 with states in the western US (Nevada, Arizona, Utah and Idaho) having the top four spots:
| State | 3Q 10 YTD | 3Q 09 YTD | Change |
| Nevada | 109,663 | 90,285 | 21.5% |
| Arizona | 330,158 | 277,334 | 19.0% |
| Utah | 144,136 | 122,301 | 17.9% |
| Idaho | 91,693 | 78,154 | 17.3% |
| Arkansas | 168,723 | 144,302 | 16.9% |
| Hawaii | 56,187 | 48,757 | 15.2% |
| Texas | 1,325,533 | 1,154,750 | 14.8% |
| North Carolina | 541,538 | 471,865 | 14.8% |
| California | 2,017,882 | 1,759,464 | 14.7% |
| Washington | 341,769 | 298,205 | 14.6% |
| New Mexico | 113,464 | 99,196 | 14.4% |
| Oregon | 231,891 | 203,021 | 14.2% |
| Georgia | 670,685 | 588,181 | 14.0% |
| Colorado | 266,272 | 233,842 | 13.9% |
| Florida | 1,090,866 | 958,172 | 13.8% |
| Alabama | 262,135 | 231,154 | 13.4% |
| Kentucky | 255,295 | 225,508 | 13.2% |
| Alaska | 31,902 | 28,261 | 12.9% |
| Maryland | 319,637 | 284,176 | 12.5% |
| Oklahoma | 189,151 | 168,424 | 12.3% |
| Indiana | 432,567 | 385,517 | 12.2% |
| Delaware | 43,262 | 38,559 | 12.2% |
| Virginia | 408,371 | 363,989 | 12.2% |
| Wyoming | 24,225 | 21,601 | 12.1% |
| Louisiana | 239,352 | 214,461 | 11.6% |
| Tennessee | 386,405 | 346,315 | 11.6% |
| Mississippi | 202,999 | 182,324 | 11.3% |
| Illinois | 731,392 | 658,041 | 11.1% |
| Missouri | 354,530 | 319,098 | 11.1% |
| Ohio | 758,615 | 685,028 | 10.7% |
| South Carolina | 276,797 | 250,011 | 10.7% |
| Wisconsin | 317,913 | 287,211 | 10.7% |
| Montana | 50,634 | 45,752 | 10.7% |
| Nebraska | 100,842 | 91,137 | 10.6% |
| Connecticut | 185,089 | 167,280 | 10.6% |
| Kansas | 153,267 | 139,775 | 9.7% |
| Rhode Island | 54,418 | 49,668 | 9.6% |
| West Virginia | 94,642 | 86,511 | 9.4% |
| Minnesota | 325,701 | 299,181 | 8.9% |
| New Hampshire | 67,383 | 62,145 | 8.4% |
| Massachusetts | 336,968 | 311,369 | 8.2% |
| New Jersey | 471,564 | 436,092 | 8.1% |
| Maine | 71,538 | 66,250 | 8.0% |
| Michigan | 698,830 | 649,321 | 7.6% |
| Iowa | 173,717 | 161,785 | 7.4% |
| New York | 1,036,035 | 966,000 | 7.3% |
| District of Columbia | 30,948 | 28,883 | 7.1% |
| South Dakota | 44,254 | 41,407 | 6.9% |
| Pennsylvania | 662,965 | 622,878 | 6.4% |
| North Dakota | 35,087 | 33,655 | 4.3% |
| Vermont | 30,838 | 29,618 | 4.1% |
| Puerto Rico | 250,896 | 253,190 | -0.9% |
How about some school-based data? Here are the top ten schools ranked by their 3Q FAFSA filings. I analyzed both the quarterly change as well as the 3Q YTD change. Note that for almost all of the top ten (except South University), their growth in FAFSAs filed in the quarter was below their YTD growth indicating the deceleration noted above. Kaplan had the sharpest decline for the quarter (among the top ten) of 23.8%.
In terms of how well FAFSA filings match up with enrollment growth, note that University of Phoenix saw a 10% decline in enrollment in their 3Q while FAFSA's fell 6.4%.
| School Name | School Type | 3Q FAFSA Filings | Quarterly Change | 3Q YTD Change |
| UNIVERSITY OF PHOENIX | Proprietary | 187,904 | -6.4% | 7.6% |
| ASHFORD UNIVERSITY | Proprietary | 28,770 | 9.6% | 49.3% |
| KAPLAN UNIVERSITY | Proprietary | 25,977 | -23.8% | 7.7% |
| STRAYER UNIVERSITY | Proprietary | 20,450 | 10.3% | 19.8% |
| DEVRY UNIVERSITY | Proprietary | 18,752 | -3.5% | 17.9% |
| HOUSTON COMMUNITY COLLEGE | Public | 18,236 | 19.4% | 27.9% |
| LIBERTY UNIVERSITY | Private | 14,506 | 18.6% | 22.7% |
| COLORADO TECH UNIV - ON LINE | Proprietary | 13,629 | 19.1% | 27.6% |
| SOUTH UNIVERSITY | Proprietary | 13,294 | 68.9% | 55.7% |
| WALDEN UNIVERSITY | Proprietary | 13,120 | 17.1% | 24.8% |
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