Below is the list created by SLA, which ranks states based on their three-year cohort default rate figures, from data provided by the Department of Education earlier today. I also thought it would be interesting to take into account the enrollment mix at the state level, since that can have an impact on a state's default rates given the variance in the three-year 2007 cohort default rate by school type:
- 4-Year Private: 6.3%
- 4-Year Public: 7.1%
- 2-Year Public: 16.2%
- Proprietary: 21.2%
Using the actual enrollment mix and applying the cohort default rates by school type listed above, I calculated a CDR (column 3) below. Comparing the Calculated CDR with the Actual CDR, one can see if a state underperformed (positive difference) or overperformed (negative difference) based on their enrollment mix. So, for example, based on their enrollment mix and assuming average CDR level for each school type, one might have predicted that Montana would have a 9.0% CDR instead of the 3.9% as derived from the Dept. of Education data, so they in effect overperformed what might have been expected given their enrollment mix.
Warning: I recognize that this is a very simplistic construct as other variables clearly play a role (e.g., income levels) but I thought that rather than just provide CDRs by state, I would take the analysis a step further. Note also that the data may be skewed by the fact that schools like University of Phoenix, while having campuses throughout the United States, operate under one OPEID with an Arizona address, which is why Arizona is so clearly skewed on the proprietary school front.
Here is a table, ranking the 50 states and the District of Columbia by three-year cohort default rate:
| Actual | Calculated | Enrollment Mix By State | ||||||
| State | 3YR CDR | CDR | Difference | 4YR PRIV | 4YR PUB | 2YR PUB | PROP. | |
| Arizona | 16.9% | 17.4% | -0.5% | 0% | 13% | 38% | 49% | |
| Texas | 16.3% | 12.1% | 4.3% | 9% | 37% | 50% | 3% | |
| Florida | 15.0% | 10.1% | 4.9% | 14% | 56% | 21% | 8% | |
| Colorado | 15.0% | 11.1% | 3.9% | 10% | 50% | 33% | 8% | |
| Tennessee | 14.8% | 10.7% | 4.1% | 21% | 41% | 34% | 5% | |
| West Virginia | 14.8% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 10% | 53% | 14% | 22% | |
| Louisiana | 14.5% | 9.2% | 5.3% | 11% | 68% | 16% | 5% | |
| Arkansas | 14.5% | 10.6% | 3.8% | 9% | 52% | 38% | 1% | |
| Nevada | 14.2% | 8.7% | 5.5% | 1% | 83% | 12% | 4% | |
| Oklahoma | 14.1% | 10.9% | 3.2% | 9% | 51% | 38% | 3% | |
| Mississippi | 14.1% | 11.5% | 2.5% | 9% | 42% | 48% | 1% | |
| Alabama | 14.0% | 10.4% | 3.5% | 8% | 56% | 34% | 2% | |
| Kentucky | 13.6% | 11.3% | 2.3% | 11% | 45% | 38% | 6% | |
| Iowa | 13.3% | 13.0% | 0.3% | 21% | 23% | 36% | 20% | |
| Rhode Island | 12.7% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 44% | 28% | 22% | 5% | |
| Illinois | 12.3% | 12.7% | -0.4% | 21% | 19% | 54% | 6% | |
| Arkansas | 11.7% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 2% | 93% | 2% | 3% | |
| Oregon | 11.6% | 12.0% | -0.4% | 11% | 37% | 47% | 5% | |
| Michigan | 11.5% | 11.3% | 0.3% | 13% | 41% | 44% | 2% | |
| New Jersey | 11.3% | 11.7% | -0.4% | 17% | 33% | 46% | 4% | |
| New Mexico | 11.2% | 11.6% | -0.5% | 2% | 49% | 48% | 1% | |
| Georgia | 11.1% | 10.6% | 0.5% | 13% | 50% | 32% | 4% | |
| Kansas | 11.0% | 11.3% | -0.3% | 10% | 42% | 45% | 1% | |
| California | 10.9% | 13.6% | -2.7% | 9% | 21% | 65% | 5% | |
| Connecticut | 10.9% | 10.5% | 0.4% | 32% | 31% | 29% | 7% | |
| Wyoming | 10.9% | 13.5% | -2.6% | 0% | 33% | 62% | 5% | |
| Indiana | 10.8% | 9.6% | 1.3% | 22% | 51% | 22% | 4% | |
| Maine | 10.8% | 9.3% | 1.4% | 25% | 50% | 20% | 4% | |
| Maryland | 10.8% | 11.0% | -0.2% | 16% | 42% | 39% | 3% | |
| Missouri | 10.7% | 8.7% | 2.0% | 43% | 36% | 16% | 4% | |
| Ohio | 10.7% | 10.6% | 0.1% | 22% | 40% | 34% | 5% | |
| New York | 10.2% | 9.8% | 0.4% | 38% | 30% | 27% | 5% | |
| Virginia | 10.0% | 11.5% | -1.5% | 15% | 39% | 40% | 6% | |
| Washington | 10.0% | 11.6% | -1.7% | 10% | 40% | 47% | 2% | |
| Delaware | 9.8% | 10.0% | -0.1% | 25% | 43% | 31% | 2% | |
| Pennsylvania | 9.7% | 9.8% | -0.1% | 42% | 27% | 21% | 9% | |
| South Carolina | 9.5% | 10.9% | -1.4% | 15% | 43% | 39% | 3% | |
| North Carolina | 9.4% | 11.3% | -1.9% | 16% | 38% | 46% | 1% | |
| Idaho | 9.2% | 8.9% | 0.3% | 20% | 59% | 17% | 3% | |
| District of Columbia | 8.5% | 11.3% | -2.9% | 58% | 9% | 0% | 33% | |
| Utah | 8.3% | 9.6% | -1.3% | 20% | 51% | 24% | 4% | |
| Hawaii | 8.2% | 10.4% | -2.2% | 22% | 40% | 38% | 1% | |
| New Hampshire | 7.6% | 10.0% | -2.4% | 34% | 35% | 21% | 9% | |
| South Dakota | 7.1% | 8.6% | -1.5% | 13% | 70% | 11% | 5% | |
| Vermont | 7.0% | 8.5% | -1.5% | 37% | 44% | 18% | 1% | |
| Massachusetts | 6.9% | 8.9% | -2.0% | 51% | 25% | 21% | 2% | |
| Nebraska | 6.7% | 11.2% | -4.5% | 19% | 34% | 45% | 2% | |
| Minnesota | 6.2% | 12.5% | -6.3% | 17% | 32% | 34% | 17% | |
| Wisconsin | 5.1% | 10.6% | -5.5% | 19% | 41% | 38% | 1% | |
| North Dakota | 4.9% | 8.6% | -3.7% | 11% | 73% | 13% | 3% | |
| Montana | 3.9% | 9.0% | -5.1% | 6% | 73% | 20% | 1% | |
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